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Adrian Godas, of Godas Research, and I sat down on September 12 for a conversation about his life over the last 5 years, his investment strategy – which involves a lot of tin – and his opinion on the uranium market, which might not be what you think it is. Or, well, it probably is since it’s in the title.
Adrian is on Twitter at https://twitter.com/The_Godas
Godas surprised me by saying that he "F***ing hates uranium". He used to love uranium, when he started out 5 years ago, but he is no longer happy with what’s been happening.
Adrian’s rationale for saying that was that he has been hearing the same uranium thesis for the last five years and the move in the uranium spot price over that period does not represent the bullishness he’s seen across the uranium sector.
Adrian also added that he thinks the uranium market is "too shady". He said most companies, with the exception of Cameco, Kazatomprom and Global Atomic, are "lifestyle companies" with "garbage assets" and are not worth looking into.
When I asked him whether that really matters, given that the uranium price is expected to perform very well over the coming years, he said that he is not investing in uranium because the risk-reward doesn’t seem favorable to him. He said that it’s possible to make "a lot of money riding a bubble", but he’s not looking to do that at the moment.
Part of Adrian’s opinion on the uranium market comes from his conversations with ex-uranium executives who have told him that uranium is a cult that’s not worth working in.
Even though Godas doesn’t like uranium, he does like a good supply deficit story.
His current favorite metal is tin. Adrian is very bullish on tin despite the grim economic outlook of most – which he thinks is overblown – and the metal’s 60% fall from its recent all-time highs.
Godas told me that he doesn’t seen anymore pain for the tin price and that he would be surprised if tin is not over $40K next year.
His favorite tin stock is Alphamin Resources, as that’s the only company Godas thinks can make money at the current tin price. He says all other tin projects in the world are not worth the risk.
Antonio Atanasov is not an investment advisor. Antonio Atanasov might own shares of companies mentioned in this publication. Always assume him biased. The information provided in this publication – and all other publications by Resource Talks – is impersonal in nature and meant for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple licensed, experienced, and qualified investment advisors. Get numerous opinions before taking your own decision in the end. The minimum risk on any investment mentioned in this publication is 100% loss of capital.
Shortly: you will lose all of your money and possibly most of your brain cells if you listen to talking heads on the internet. Especially if they have orange hair and no experience (me).
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Timestamps:
00:00 Important warning
01:00 Who is Adrian Godas?
08:40 Adrian’s investing strategy
13:38 What jurisdictions does Adrian invest in?
23:50 What commodities does Adrian invest in?
26:00 Will the tin price recover?
31:20 Demand numbers for tin
36:49 What is tin used for?
38:00 Is tin in danger because of the recession?
41:20 How long will the bull cycle in tin go on for?
42:00 Why is nobody paying attention to tin?
43:30 Why does Adrian hate uranium?
53:50 Adrian’s top 3 stocks
Was there something wrong with what the guests said? Did I fail to ask an important question? Did I make a mistake? Please tell me about it. Criticism and skepticism are highly welcome and help me learn. Thank you.